Online poll results opposite OHA poll

Earl Arakaki (who has a lawsuit bearing his name that seeks to destroy OHA and Hawaiian Homelands), has a piece in the Hawaii Reporter about the results of the Star-Bulletin's online poll on the Akaka bill, which shows 74% against the bill, the opposite result as the 2003 OHA poll. (I agree with Arakaki in opposing the Akaka bill, but for very different reasons.)

He's right in pointing out some of the bias and problems with OHA's poll methodology and questions. If it is true that "the survey continued to ask questions about the Akaka Bill without regard to whether or not the person being polled had even heard of the proposal," that is indeed a pretty suspect way to run a poll. (I also think he's right that there is a problem with the "ceded lands" question, but for a different reason - not because it wasn't stolen and belongs to everyone, but because it was never ceded and still belongs to the Hawaiian kingdom.)

At the same time, as much as I delight in the results of the Star-Bulletin poll, citing it as "the only true vote ever taken on this controversial subject" is problematic as well.

As I pointed out in my original post on the poll, online polls are completely unscientific, as the "sample" is those who choose to participate. Also, there was no limit on the geographic location of participants, so it can't even be said to be a poll of Hawaii residents.

What online polls do tend to measure, however, is the intensity of feeling about an issue - those who feel strongly enough to take the time to participate, and organize others to do so, will skew the poll in their direction. So if anything, what the results of this poll show is that those who are against the Akaka bill are really against it, while there isn't as much passionate support for it.

Yes, this poll is useful to show that support is probably not as high or as strong as our officials would have us and congress believe, but those on both ends of the spectrum against the Akaka bill would be wise to avoid citing this poll and saying in effect that "74% of Hawaii's people are against the Akaka bill." It doesn't in any way prove that.

UPDATE (3/21): Ken Conklin has a letter in the Star-Bulletin about the poll results. Again, while we share an opposition to the bill, it is for quite different reasons.

Posted: Sat - March 19, 2005 at 12:11 PM

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Online poll results opposite OHA poll

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